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Euro summit/Debt rescheduling

The 'Los Angeles Times' refers to the USA as the "United Debt Republic"; the magazine 'Salon' considers "Madhouse America" to be more accurate. The USA has debts of almost US$ 60 trillion, and things look much the same in Europe.
The explicit debt of the countries of the European Currency Union alone comes to approx. € 10,000 billion, and if the implicit debts are added, this figure is quadrupled, i.e. about € 40,000 billion. With regard to the whole of Europe, the figures are even worse, because the countries which do not belong to the European Currency Union have debts, too and the bank-rupt currency of the Euro hardly strengthens currencies. Prior to the introduction of the Euro and during the transition, the individual national currencies were not devalued, which would have been necessary in order to at least ensure a sound financial basis in view of all the different circumstances of these countries. Instead of creat-ing a genuine community, politics saw fit to transfer the mountains of debt of the individual countries into the community in order to cover up abuse and mismanagement and to strength-en political power – this was of little benefit to the Europeans.
This political gambit alone goes to show the interests pursued by politics. The full extent of political mismanagement can be derived from the fact that politics in order to maintain power is even prepared to break the rules created for the union. The limits for new debt and total debt laid down in the stability pact – here referring only to the explicit debt – were not observed but weakened. More countries were allowed to join the union almost at random (it was not even checked whether the debt limit was up to the budgets), although these countries clearly could not meet any of the standards. Former Chancellor Schröder and his vicarious agent, Federal Finance Minister Mr. Eichel, thought that they could override any limit. Such horrendous mistakes like the circumvention of the stability pact and the negligence when reviewing the admission requirements for Greece, should not have been allowed to happen at all. In the view of the people, and irrespective of all formal legal assessment possi-bilities, the politicians of Germany, and of the whole European Currency Union, can justly be referred to as Eurothugs, also because of the decades of mismanagement during the time before the union's creation.

The Euro packages put together over recent months for rescue measures in the form of subsidiary liabilities by means of bank securities, guarantees and sometimes also cash payments, which in turn are made using loans, have culminated in the fact that the existing rescue pack-ages with a total volume of € 1,620 billion will now be topped up again with a further € 157 billion. This was agreed at the Euro summit on 21st July 2011. The complete rescue package volume of the supporting countries of the EU therefore amounts to € 1,780 billion right now.
It is now a matter of additional aid for Greece, a new European currency fund. This rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) confers further powers through the new rescue package. This facility may in future buy loans from debtor countries on the open market, thereby providing relief. The fund can also grant lines of credit to other problem count-ries as a precautionary measure, in order to prevent speculation. The new EFSF has a volume of € 440 billion. As early as this year, the Euro-states intend to set up from this fund the de-finitive rescue package for the Euro by means of a treaty between the member countries. The German Bundestag must then give its consent to the agreements made in Brussels, and ratify this treaty. This however will turn the Currency Union, also in the case of Greece, into a lia-bility community heading in the direction of a transfer union, partly at least. If Greece goes bankrupt in the near future despite all the aid – and that is quite conceivable – the countries of the European Currency Union will be liable for a major part of the Greek debt. These liabilities will then become payment obligations, and in this case it is clear how much of this will land on Germany's doorstep.
A Marshall plan for Greece should, according to the intention of all EU governments, help the Greek economy back on to its feet. Exactly how this plan is supposed to function remains unclear. The press has reported that German industry should become involved, and the Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie (BDI) may organise an investors' conference. Help is to be provided above all with the privatisation of stateowned businesses, because the savings measures which were necessary to obtain rescue package funds are stifling the economic performance of the country (decline of 5 % as at 2010), which in view of reduced revenues has few possibilities of paying off debts.
With the possibility of exchanging Greek bonds for EFSF bonds, part of the debt obligations of Greece are transferred to the EU. One initial variant is the socalled Eurobonds, by which all countries become liable for the debts of individual countries. Germany has so far entered into this obligation with guarantee promises for the fund to the level of € 190 billion. This obligation will increase if one of the problem countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Belgium, Italy, Spain (and France) goes bankrupt or has to have its debt rescheduled, at which time Germany will have to pay.
At the present time, nobody is in a position to estimate how severely the German national budget will be affected by these payments.

This will not be helped by any optimism which the German press is trying to spread; at the moment the system is still running only because the debtor countries are servicing their debts. The press even writes about interest revenues, which do in fact exist, although in comparison to all the debts they hardly come into the balance, and the clouds are already gathering on the horizon. All the loanfinanced cash payment obligations, the enormous securities and guarantees, and therefore all the subsidiary liabilities in the countries of the EU will sooner or later lead to bankruptcies. A domino system. The question is: When will the first one fall?
Economic experts see no end to the debt crisis because of the completely inadequate debt rescheduling of the thus inadequate debt relief. A devaluation of Greek bonds by half, and the voluntary or even compulsory participation of the banks is considered the right move, although this has not yet come about. In view of the weak development of the economy, the Greeks are not in a position to start servicing their debts. It is feared that all countries of the European Currency Union will become jointly liable for the debtor states. This is dangerous however, and could lead to a spreading of the debt crisis to other countries, because it will signify to the debtor countries that severe savings measures with strict reforms and strict budget management no longer appear to be absolutely essential. Nevertheless, Greece will soon be rid of around 20% of its debts (of € 340 billion). The repayment periods have been extended and the original interest rate to be paid has been reduced by one percentage point. By this means, the moment of the crash has been postponed; a plaster has been stuck on the political interests in power, which must be stinging quite painfully on the skin of economists and Greeks.
Overall, it can only be said that with the Euro summit of 21st July 2011, a new abyss now yawns wide in the valley of the Euro. The conditions for the supporting countries are grotesque, and do not correspond to those which would be agreed upon by professional busi-nessmen. According to the principles of professional businessmen, extensions of repayment periods and interest rate reductions cannot be in the common interest. They can only be of interest from the point of view of politicians to ensure their survival. They are not in the interests of the people of the countries.

In this context it is also interesting that the problem for European politics within the European Currency Union of the dependency of the Euro market (the money market as such) on US rating agencies, so hotly discussed recently, led to the idea of creating European rating agencies (or direct European supervisory intervention). Fortunately a flash in the pan, after the previously hostile ECB also accepted a downgrading by the rating agencies for the period of the restructuring in view of the concerted interest situation, and it therefore no longer stands in the way of voluntary additional support of private creditors, but even intends to continue to accept government bonds of ailing countries as securities.

If the guarantee, a state guarantee, for supposedly safe German savings and giro accounts is to be provided for a third time by the government (first on the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, second on 15./16.12.2010 in connection with the last Euro summit but on one new rescue package resolutions and now at the last Euro summit on 21.7.2011), then it must be emphasised that Angela Merkel with these words broke faith three times, because never did she have any valid parliamentary resolution for these statements. This would have had to be in writing, but does not appear in the Bundestag's records. As the voice of the people represented by the federal government, Angela Merkel has guaranteed something which nobody could have guaranteed, and cannot do to the present day. This guarantee was intended to prevent the flight of capital and collapse of markets, and in the end this sleeping pill also served to preserve the power of the government. Perhaps this way it should go unnoticed that the total debts which have been piled up by all federal governments now amount to twice as much as the total financial assets of the German people. Seen in this light, the assets of the population have never been safe. Lying to the people of the country once might in view of this situation have been acceptable, acceptable, not excusable; lying a second time reveals how much Angela Merkel's government is on the ropes in Europe, which however does not appear to alarm anybody in Germany; lying a third time confirms deliberate intent, and somehow also the insight that the people would swallow it. And they are swallowing it – aren't they?
Alliance for Democracy believes that the Germans do not deserve such a chancellor. Nor do the people of the European Currency Union. Such a policy must urgently be controlled and contained. It is negligent, and has proven that indirect parliamentary democracy serves only politics itself. It has proven its inability to exert any control over a free market economy or ensure the monetary basis while maintaining at least consistent buying power. This can only be counteracted by the will of the people in the form of referenda.
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