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bombOpen letter 16/18/02/11

The new “tithe”

When it was said in early November 2013 that industry in Europe was gradually coming out of the recession, this was achieved mainly by redundancies or the non-replacement of natural wastage.
This concerned above all the countries of Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain. The press even went so far as to report: there is a damping of crisis, which is also supposed to have been observed since early November 2013. This damping is even supposed to go so far that countries such as Ireland or Spain are prepared to do without rescue package funds. But it remains a matter of time until these countries again have to cling onto the coat-tails of the IMF to obtain subsidies for their budgets.
The basis for this supposed good news was the so-called “Einkaufsmanagerindex” (EMI) (Purchasing Manager’s Index), which reports for individual countries, including Germany, but also for the Euro countries. The EMI is based on the model of the US Purchasing Manager‘s Index (PMI).
About 3,000 industrial companies in the Euro countries are questioned as part of the survey, amongst them Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Ireland and Greece. For this purpose, the bossed have to assess values, such as production, new orders, employment, delivery times and stock levels, and award points accordingly. The number 50 thereby plays the decisive role – 50 is neutral, a value of over 50 points represents an increase, and a value of below 50 points stands or declining industrial production. The greater the deviation from 50 points, the greater the change.
In October 2012, the Purchasing Manager’s Index in the Euro zone stood at 45.4 points; by October 2013 it had risen to 51.3 points.
For the collection of this data in Germany, 500 purchasing managers or managing directors from the processing industry in Germany (selected by sector, size, region as representative of the German economy as a whole). It is derived from factors such as performance, order intake, employment, delivery times and preliminary material stocks. The limit of 50 points also applies to this survey, which indicates to what extent industrial businesses have developed compared to the previous month; values under 50 indicate a decline in performance; values over 50 signify growth. The greater the deviation from 50 points, the greater the change. A value of 50 means no change over the previous month. In October 2012, the PMI in Germany reached 46 points; in October 2013, the value stood at 51.9 points.
A similar survey model is the “Geschäftsklimaindex” (“Business Climate Index”), which is published by the “ifo-Institut”. This survey includes 7,000 companies (construction, wholesale, retail). The ifo business climate determines the current business situation in the companies and provides an assessment of expectations for the next six months. The situation can be judged as “good”, “satisfactory” or “bad”; the business expectations for the coming six months can be regarded as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “less favourable”. The balance value for the coming six months is the difference in percentage between the responses “good” and “bad”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference in percentage between the responses “more favourable” and “less favourable”.
The business climate is a calculated average of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values, the transformed balances are each normalised against the average of the year 2005. For the years 1991 to 2013, the value fluctuated between 106.80 and 106.60 (which also represents no improvement, but rather indicates a stagnation of the situation and therefore made the “tithe” redundant). Over the years, the value fell below 90 points or fluctuated at just over 90-100 points.
To want to derive from these values an improvement of the economic situation in Europe is basically wrong. The biggest mistake is that the bosses estimate the performance of their companies. The values are collated and then published. An inference on the actual situation would then only be possible if independent auditors calculated the data, after having been given an insight into the accounting and management under the above aspects and other papers, and also the balance sheets.
The fact is: due to the crisis, companies still have too few orders and do not sell enough of their products, or receive too little money for their services to put themselves in the situation of being able to take on more employees. The economic situation allows only the hiring of temporary employees or student helpers, who can expect too little or no money for their work.
From these figures, it can therefore be seen that the employment market has not yet recovered, and that the Euro is only being preserved by inflation and price increases, and also by payments of investors and savers, so that pensioners can also be paid.

The distinction must therefore be made above all that the economic situation of debt-ridden Europe and bankrupt Germany is not apparent from the balance sheets of companies, but that the country’s situation depends solely on the national budget, which in Germany is in debt to the tune of € 15,000 billion (implicit and explicit). This debt cannot be compensated for by budgeting. Added to this is the fact that all the Euro countries are bankrupt.
So in order to get at the money which the debt union would need in order to counteract the indebtedness of countries (not the economy), a plan (download at: has been worked out by the International Monetary Fund (Box 6 p. 49), which runs: apply a charge of 10%. This would therefore affect all holders of savings, stocks and property. The IMF makes reference to a one-time charge.
The report mentions the extreme level of debt, which has increased enormously in the years from 2007. In this respect, it must be assumed that the IMF will not publish any country assessments (as was usual up to the year 2006, i.e. before the Lehmann crash) or any figures, in order not to bring the malaise of the crisis to the attention of the people of Europe. It has long been a matter not of rescue, but of retouching.
The IMF nevertheless announced that the public debt quota of the debt union will reach unprecedented levels in the year 2014, a value of 110% of gross domestic product (GDP). The crisis situation has therefore not improved at all; it has deteriorated by 35 percentage points since 2007, i.e. since before the financial crisis. In figures: the Euro countries are sitting on debts of over 90% of GDP. The 10% charge could bring down debt to the 2007 level.
This would help the alleged Euro rescuers, i.e. politics, banks and big business, who in this way would make themselves a present of a sort of second round of the crisis.
The IMF confirms this “tithe”, which also existed during the Middle Ages for the benefit of the clergy, so that even after the world wars, property taxes to pay off debt were common. On this point however it must be said: We are not at war – or has the Alliance for Democracy missed something?
Despite all the ideas about how the crisis can be stopped (the IMF proposes some in its report, amongst them a wealth tax), it remains: There will have to be some plan for expropriation, because as already stated, the debt madness cannot be ended by normal management or budgeting, or even by saving. The state of the economy may have changed, but nothing has improved; the Euro countries are all bankrupt, the rescue measures only make the situation worse.
The IMF will also not implement this “tithe” plan. The protest to be expected from the Germans would be too great, as well as the Italians and the Greeks, who in any case have nothing left; so it is simpler just to make money from the interest which is to be had because of the reduction of the base interest rate. The IMF also allows itself because of these interest levels to cherish dreams, such as the alleged surpluses in public budgets to be expected up to 2018. From where they are supposed to come, only God knows.
An expensive dream which the IMF and also the countries of Europe have allowed themselves. The bottom line is that the Euro currency will be reduced to the level of the East German Mark due to bad management by all the Euro countries, by taking out loans to pay off loans, and in order to support and be supported, and will therefore also reduce the expectations of budgets and the economy. To speak here of an improvement in the situation is insupportable, and should be prosecuted as a case of deliberate fraud. Stupidly however, the organs of the state have found other things to do. We can learn from all this: Figures are treacherous. Anyone who has to rely on the figures shown in an account will have little understanding of the games of those in power.
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