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Uncertain times for the employment market

In the year 2012, the upturn in the economy will be dampened by the Euro crisis and the national debt. This will have a direct effect on the employment market, as shown by the autumn forecast of the Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) (Institute for Employment Market and Vocational Research) published on 30th September 2011.
At an assumed growth rate of 1% in the year 2012, an annual average of 2.92 million people will be unemployed, still 50,000 less than in 2011.
Since no stabilisation will occur in the European debt crisis, and the financial markets still remain unstable, the employment market trend of recent years will not continue at the same level, since the resources made available by the Hartz reforms are largely exhausted, according to the Nürnberg researchers.
Overall economic development was currently characterised by considerable uncertainties. There would be yawning discrepancies in future expectations and estimates of the actual situation on the employment market. The IAB researchers could not exclude the contraction of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the year 2012. A decline of 0.2% would cause a rise in unemployment of 20,000 to an annual average of 2.99 million. Due to demographic developments alone, the available labour pool would shrink by almost 250,000 people in 2012, the researchers calculated. This decline could however be compensated for by more women on the employment market, and above all by more older employees, or by immigrants from the eight central and eastern European countries, for whom full freedom of movement for jobs and services applies since May 2011. In total therefore, the available labour pool would only shrink by 40,000 people in the year 2012.

The BILD provided a surprise in a completely different way with a report on 25th October 2011 (page 2), according to which the forecast of the Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag (DIHK) (Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce) indicates that German companies intend to create 250,000 new jobs for the year 2012. These are to be created in the sectors of service-providers (80,000 jobs), metalworking and electronics (50,000 jobs) and research and development (40,000 jobs). It can only be assumed that 2012 will be an outstanding year for the German employment market, in which nobody need be unemployed any longer. How clever that the legal regulations on immigrants were made with such foresight!