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It will be a very long and painful process

In "Stern" (No. 20, of 12th May 2011), the US economist Kenneth Rogoff spoke about the global financial crisis. Rogoff, who is a passionate chess-player, and who is employed as the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund and a Harvard professor, and advises politicians, said with regard to the financial crisis, "which was triggered by the banking crisis", that he was having no nightmares, but that history taught us that overcoming such crises was a very long and painful process.

To the question of whether the economy was picking up in Germany at the moment, Rogoff replied: "... of course, things may be going somewhat better for you in Germany. If you just look at the figures, even the USA appears to have overcome its recession. But in reality, that is nonsense. Financial and banking crises hit our national economies much harder than any other crisis."

With reference to his book "This Time is Different", Rogoff explains what we could learn from the economic crises of the last 200 years.
There have always been banking crises, in England, in France, in the USA. These were followed by national bankruptcies, 66 countries went bankrupt, but it was not the end of the world. Rogoff says: "No. But the consequences are drastic." The economic upturn will last longer than with other recessions, and national debts will increase. Since the USA and all other countries of the EU are enormously in debt, this will also have its effect on economic growth. Rogoff: "This impairs economic growth."

The prospects foreseen by Rogoff are rather dark. Civil unrest, poverty, inflation. The remedy: Debt rescheduling or "an orderly, staged withdrawal of bankrupt countries from the Currency Union. They should return to their own currencies, devalue them enormously, and in this way become competitive once more." Rogoff, like many parliamentarians in all countries of the European Currency Union, sees the objective not as saving the Euro, although Rogoff concedes that "only for those responsible, the banks, almost nothing has changed. We have let the banks get away with far too much."
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